WHY ALL THE POLITICAL POLLS are conveying erronous results
By
comments and news from net, Posted in Politics / National
Aside from Bill O'Reilly doing some good investigation into the demographics of the political polling process... We haven't heard anybody else analyzing the merit of all these political polls. And what is acutely provocative to us is the recurrent contention by pollsters that.. OH GOSH the race is tight! ---Really? Because if that's true, half the nation are an horrifically dangerous bunch of mental lunatics... KAMALA HARRIS?? ..How actually stupid do you have to be to consider her seriously for even 5 seconds? Really. HOW EXACTLY STUPID are these delusional bipeds "supporting" her candidacy. You're trying to tell me roughly half the country? If true that's very frightening. And btw while saying this, don't think we are uncritical and fawning over the Trump candidacy. There are some notable things we find scary in what Trump says and waxes zealous for (especially including hysterical, logically irrational-- Zionism). And let's never forget the astronomically bad blunders he made in letting himself be talked into installing lockdowns, and joining hands with the evilly crafted OPERATION WARPSPEED deepstate [poison shot] project. All that not to be excluded, still you look at Trump the candidate and KH the candidate, and well, come on. Is that really a contest?
Which brings us to consider the validity issue regarding all these POLLS. Years back in time when IKE meant the POTUS and not half of a candy brand... POLLS were basically conducted by random callouts to landline phones. But today landline phone sets are a dinosaur. 183 million Americans tossed them out long ago, and only use cellphones currently. In efforts to offset this problem, pollsters today SUPPLEMENT their callouts to landlines with some degrees of texting, emails, and random calls to cellphones. Nowwww, here's the big problem with all that as relates to this election's run up:
Basically THERE ARE TWO KINDS OF VOTERS IN THIS ELECTION.... SOCIALLY CONFORMING PERSONALITIES. AND INDEPENDENT / INDIVIDUALISTIC PERSONALITIES. And guess what? While the latter make up a huge amount of the MAGA voters who plan to vote for Trump...Those "individualist" type personalities... (for the most part) DON'T participate in polling. They won't answer a text message for such. Nor an email for such. Don't have landlines anymore. And definitely won't pick up a cellphone call for such. They are averse to it. They distrust pollsters and also fear data mining. So what we're saying here is... THESE POLLS are ALL OF THEM under-reporting voter strength on the Trump candidacy, That's something logic tells you to assume. Okay then, HOW MUCH is the degree of under-reporting. Hard to say. Our guess would be 5-7% at least. Maybe as much as 10%
Oh and btw, how do we confidently declare that individualistic personality types will shun calls from pollsters? WE ASKED 35... And every single one said they would not answer a polling call. Sure, not a huge sample but, 35 in a row saying no, we think kind of makes the point.
HISTORICAL:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election
..