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Economy USA

ECON ---- Rickards: A U.S. Recession is VERY POSSIBLE VERY SOON

By from net, Posted in Economy USA

Three Threats on the Horizon

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The fact that Trump's economic policies are sound, and the long-term economic prospects are good, should not divert us from the fact that there are serious economic challenges in the near-term. These will not be Trump's fault because they have been years in the making. But the damage may emerge early in Trump's term.

This scenario is not unlike the start of Ronald Reagan's first term in 1981. The U.S. had its worst recession since the end of World War II during 1981-82. (We've had worse recessions since, but 1981-82 was the worst up until that time).

It took a few years for Reagan's policies to take effect. The period 1983-1986 was one of the strongest growth spurts in recent history with 16% compounded real growth. But we had to get through a rough patch first.

Here's a summary of three economic threats to investors that may emerge over 2025 before we get to higher ground expected in 2026 and beyond:

1. Stock Market Crash Quite Possible

Markets are at or near all-time highs based on every available metric: P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP ratio, concentration risk, etc. This stock market bubble is amplified by indexing, investor complacency and analyst euphoria. When such conditions have existed in the past, they have always been followed by market crashes of 50% to 90% unfolding over several years. Examples include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929), the Nikkei (1989), NASDAQ (2000), and the S&P 500 Index (2008).

We are now positioned for a historic crash. The specific cause does not matter - it could be war, natural disaster, a bank or hedge fund collapse or other unexpected event. What matters is the super-fragility of the market when the trigger is pulled. This is why Warren Buffett has over $300 billion in cash and why central banks are buying gold.

Investors should prepare now; don't be the last one to know. Strategies include reducing allocations to stocks, increasing allocations to cash and purchasing some gold (up to 10% of your investable assets) to participate in a flight to quality.

2. Is a U.S. Recession ... Coming?

This is problematic for stocks independent of any crash potential. Inflation has persisted, energy prices are back up to interim highs, unemployment is going up, job hiring is frozen, and the manufacturing sector is contracting. All signs point to a VERY LIKELY U.S. recession.

Federal reserve rate cuts won't help. They do not provide "stimulus." Rate cuts are a sign of economic weakness, not strength. The Fed is not leading the interest rate market. They are following the market down.

Of course, a recession could trigger a market crash. But even if it does not, recessions are typically associated with 30% declines in stock valuations over a year or less. The investment strategy for a recession is substantially the same as the crash strategy.

3. Currency Wars Are Back and Trade Wars Are Coming

The super-strong dollar today makes it difficult for other countries to buy U.S. goods. Tariffs will make the global dollar shortage worse as foreign investors seek dollars to jump the tariff walls and invest directly in the U.S.

Both the strong dollar and the coming U.S. tariffs invite retaliation by trading partners who will put up their own tariff walls. The result will be a global contraction in trade that could resemble the trade collapse of the 1930s during the Great Depression. U.S. stocks fell 85% from October 1929 to June 1932 during that episode of trade wars. A repeat could be on the way if economies such as China (that should be boosting consumption) choose to fight trade wars instead, adding to the U.S. recession concerns.

We'll be closely monitoring all these threats and provide you with the best in analysis and recommendations in the coming weeks and months.

DEVELOPING -- Ed Dowd says -- The ECONOMY is in MUCH WORSE condition than you even think

By from net, Posted in Economy USA

https://rumble.com/v5p21fh-respected-financial-expert-edward-dowd-warns-trump.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/billionaire-investor-paulson-says-he-will-not-be-us-treasury-secretary-2024-11-12/

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-much-do-americans-spend-groceries-each-state

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Footnote:


Alex Jones and the Infowars content have a new URL

~ ~ ~ ~

Alex Jones and Co. are now at -- https://ajnlive.com

Alex Jones and Co. are now at -- https://ajnlive.com

Alex Jones and Co. are now at -- https://ajnlive.com

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also discover...

https://theshannonjoy.com/

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DOCKWORKERS STRIKE begins..... Another proof Harris-Biden regime is INCOMPETENT

By from net, Posted in Economy USA

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/dockworkers-go-strike-east-gulf-coast-ports

THE CAUSES

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/10/01/bbd-longshoremen-strike/

https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message5816984/pg1

== news urgent - breaking ==

https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message5817264/pg1

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/45000-dock-workers-maine-texas-went-massive-strike/

https://twitter.com/BlackLabelAdvsr/status/1840597461766705661

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/biden-harris-commerce-secretary-when-asked-about-impending/

DOCKWORKERS DRAMA -- massive negotiation mess left till last minute

By from net, Posted in Economy USA

https://apnews.com/article/longshoremen-strike-ports-pay-consumers-automation-october-77289c12bf3c3eff5e42cb6372126576

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-IozSspkHg

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/29/business/port-strike-automation-dockworkers.html

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/looming-port-strike-fuel-inflation-cause-layoffs-experts/story?id=114070962

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